Super Bowl 2023 coin toss odds: Will Chiefs select heads or tails?

Our buddy and boss Nando Di Fino despatched us down a Super Bowl coin toss betting rabbit gap final 12 months. You know the way you begin trying up one factor on the web, after which two hours later, you surprise what occurred? That’s what Nando did to us. He secured official Super Bowl cash and had us flipping cash all Super Bowl week. I arrange my digital camera in a number of completely different spots to safe the good slow-mo video of the coin flipping and bouncing on my carpet. More than 600 flips later, I knew there was no edge available on the coin toss. Of course, I already knew this.

If you’re in search of some traits on the coin toss, the winner of the coin toss has misplaced the sport in eight straight Super Bowls. The final workforce to win the coin toss and win the sport was the Seahawks in opposition to Denver in Super Bowl 47. Four of the final 5 Super Bowls have been heads. The Chiefs shall be calling the coin toss because the visiting workforce for this 12 months’s Super Bowl.

The coin flip guess is goofy, dumb enjoyable. But please don’t guess any cash on it. As editor of the sports activities betting part, if I endorse it with an excessive amount of enthusiasm, I’ll be referred to as out by critical bettors for pushing a wager that sportsbooks need you to make, as a result of the chances are horrible. They’ll generate income from the poor, uneducated bettors who mindlessly click on on banners and hyperlinks. But if I look down my nostril on the coin flip guess to appease the fake cognoscenti, I’ve turn out to be the pompous, lifeless betting elitist who sucks the enjoyable out of what some folks view as a type of comparatively low cost leisure on Super Bowl Sunday.

With odds at -105 on both sides, sportsbooks will make 2.38% revenue. Even extra folks guess tails as a result of it by no means fails, in order that they’ll in all probability find yourself with an even bigger win if it finally ends up heads. The outcomes from our journey down the coin toss rabbit gap are beneath from final 12 months.

The Highland Mint has been in enterprise since 1986. The firm produces the official coin that’s flipped in the beginning of the Super Bowl. Each 12 months, they mint 10,000 of the very same Super Bowl coin — the primary 100 are despatched to the NFL; the remaining 9,900 are offered to collectors and followers. Executive Vice President Vince Bohbot says the coin weighs the identical yearly (roughly 1 oz), and the design is guided by the NFL. This 12 months’s coin is 39mm in diameter. And they don’t, Bohbot says, take a look at flip the coin earlier than delivery.

We obtained three of the official Super Bowl cash (they retail for $99.99), despatched them to Sports Betting Sr. Editor Andrew DeWitt, Sports Betting editor Dan Santaromita, and a Sports Betting intern. They got however one instruction: flip this coin 500 or extra instances and document the outcomes. They might flip it inside, outdoors, wherever. Bohbot says that whereas the Highland Mint produces tens of millions extra cash per 12 months, outdoors of the Super Bowl coin, they haven’t developed any flipping steering. “Usually it’s a flip of the thumb with a gradual upward arm movement,” he explains.

Will this show something in a guess that’s basically 50/50? No. But was it enjoyable? No. But is that this now essentially the most intense “coin flip bet” story you’ve ever learn? You inform us.

The intern (500 flips) descends into coin flip insanity

• Feb. 4 at 6 p.m. –  An unknown parcel has arrived at my entrance door. Of course, it’s the coin, hid inside a booklet and guarded by a casing and a thick wood-like construction (extra on this in a second).
• Feb. 4 at 9 p.m. –  Time to retrieve the coin, or so I initially thought. This booklet is mainly a fortress and frustration is constructing. Many failed makes an attempt later, the toolbox has been damaged out and extraction was lastly profitable by means of the trusty mixture of a field cutter, pliers and utilized stress.
• Feb. 7 at 9 a.m. – We go outdoors to start flipping. It’s cloudy, within the low 30s and really icy in New York right this moment.
• Feb. 7 at 9:02 a.m. — In the identify of science, I resolve to audible and flip this coin inside. After all, the indoor temperature and wind situations are rather more in keeping with the anticipated climate at SoFi Stadium on Sunday.
• Feb. 7 at 9:30 a.m. – And we’re off. Through 25 flips, heads has a slight 13-12 edge. After the primary 100 tosses, heads was the consequence 54 instances.
• Feb. 7 at 10 a.m. – A light sweat has been damaged some 175 flips in. Surprised can be an understatement. But tails is the victor of the following 150 throws, popping up 83 instances. Halfway there.
• Feb. 7 at 10:30 a.m. – It’s not the way you begin, however the way you end. Unfortunately, tempo is slowing down on account of unexpected harm. Fingers are tightening up and an odd tingling ache is coming from my flipping elbow. We energy by means of for the folks as heads makes a little bit of a comeback with 53 of the following 100 tosses.
• Feb. 7 at 11:15 a.m. – An precisely even 50-50 cut up over one other 100 throws was surprising. So was the growing discomfort. This experiment goes to be the foundation explanation for future dexterity points. We have been so near the top of one other set and growth, we’ve bought an uphill climb to the end line with 50 tosses to go.
• Feb. 7 at 11:30 a.m. – Tails takes the vast majority of the ultimate set and finally ends up because the extra frequent consequence. The coin goes again in its case after observing it for 2 hours. Someone get me an ice pack for my elbow, it looks like I simply threw eight innings.

Here are the ultimate outcomes:

Yes, tails received. But is that this knowledge pattern sufficient so that you can guess the bottom of the coin this 12 months? Remember, a unique individual flips at each Super Bowl and the sport is performed in a unique local weather every year. We might go on and on in regards to the quite a few variables that ought to deter you from betting on this prop. But we received’t.

Andrew DeWitt (651 flips) wonders the place all of it went awry in his life

Since we began the sports activities betting vertical a 12 months in the past, we’ve discovered that there’s extra worth find the weird or one thing that the bookmakers didn’t anticipate. From the size of the longest residence run within the Home Run Derby to the New England Patriots enjoying a whole NFL soccer recreation with out throwing greater than 5 passes, there are good alternatives for those who’re affected person and search for them constantly. It’s one thing James Holzhauer continues to preach in his columns. Winning at sports activities betting isn’t about choosing winners, however discovering worth within the odds and making the most of what you discover in uncommon conditions.

So, in principle, discovering an edge in a coin made to promote to followers as collectables isn’t that loopy of an concept. What if it landed heads 65 p.c of the time for some motive?

Unfortunately, there’s nothing right here. I flipped this sucker 650 instances and it completed 330 heads and 320 tails. The coin does have a pleasant sound to it once you flip it up and it does bounce loads off of the carpet in my workplace taking some massive bounces and skidding. But that’s all I’ve for perception. Back to scouring the props to seek out one other guess that’s additional off in its pricing.

Do. Not. Bet. On. The. Coin. Toss.

Dan Santaromita’s mind wanders into lalaland whereas flipping a coin 600 instances

My first impression of the coin after getting it out of the bundle: Wow this sucker is heavy. It’s just one ounce, however for a coin it’s hefty. Like DeWitt mentioned, you’ll be able to hear it whirring within the air on an excellent flip. That’s cool.

After determining which aspect was heads and which was tails (severely, there’s no “head” to make it apparent), it was off to the races. My subsequent concern was in realizing how loud of a noise this hefty coin made when it landed on my carpet. I lived in fixed worry of my downstairs neighbor throwing a match. Then I remembered he blasts heavy-bass music in any respect hours, so screw it.

As I flipped this coin 600 instances over the course of 4 days, my thoughts started to wander. At one level I critiqued Roger Goodell’s signature. The G that begins his final identify is on a bizarre angle, however each different letter is completely upright.

I used to be fairly positive I had formally misplaced it once I stared on the tails aspect and noticed that the 4 logos spell out NOBA. N for the NFC emblem, the Rams emblem is kind of within the form of an O, B for the Bengals emblem and A for the AFC emblem. NOBA. What would NOBA imply as a phrase? Maybe I’m enjoying an excessive amount of Wordle and my mind is simply attempting to power phrases into existence.

Finally, I recalled one thing from highschool statistics class. Our trainer cut up us into teams and had us flip a coin 100 instances and preserve observe. He additionally requested us to make up 100 heads/tails outcomes. He would take a look at the 2 outcomes aspect by aspect and at all times knew which one was actual and which one was made up.

The level of the lesson was to indicate that even in one thing that has a 50-50 likelihood, there shall be lengthy streaks of the identical final result. When folks attempt to make up coin flip outcomes, they’re afraid to have lengthy streaks as a result of they don’t suppose it’s doubtless. To that time, I had a run of 23 straight tails at one level instantly adopted by six straight heads.

Oh, and I’m with DeWitt. Please don’t guess on the coin flip. Bet on literally anything else.

Total tally

(Photo of Super Bowl coin toss: Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times by way of Getty Images; Super Bowl LVII coin picture by way of Highland Mint)