We’ve virtually made it. In simply over every week, the Bills and Rams will hit the turf, and the 2022 NFL season will formally start.
We’ve sifted by means of most of the markets accessible to us, however one deserves a bit extra consideration: season-long landing totals. Available to bettors on DraftKings, there are a couple of names that appear to be stable worth to exceed their set traces for touchdowns by season’s finish.
Trevor Lawrence over 22.5 passing touchdowns (-110 DK)
Trevor Lawrence had a tough rookie season, tossing 12 touchdowns to 17 interceptions, however actually, did something go proper in Jacksonville?
Steeped in teaching drama and an incompetent offense, I’m prepared to offer Lawrence the good thing about the doubt because the “can’t-miss” prospect he is been billed as for the previous few years.
With Doug Pederson working the offense, there’s a cheap expectation for a soar in play from the previous Clemson star. We’ll spotlight Carson Wentz as a parallel right here.
While the 2016 Eagles did not have the turmoil that the 2021 Jaguars did, Wentz had a so-so statistical 12 months as a rookie, throwing 16 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. In Year 2, underneath Pederson, Wentz exploded for 33 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in simply 13 video games performed.
A guess on Lawrence here’s a guess on Pederson unlocking one of the best components of Lawrence’s recreation and giving him an offense that may result in success. He’s achieved it earlier than.
The Jags added some good items to their offense, headlined by Christian Kirk. Marvin Jones is a dependable second receiver, and Zay Jones gives some velocity to the offense. While Evan Engram has had some points with drops, he is nonetheless a effective tight finish choice.
Tack on the return to well being of working again Travis Etienne, who caught eight touchdowns from Lawrence of their time collectively at Clemson, and it is a a lot better scenario in Year Two.
AJ Dillon over 5.5 speeding touchdowns (-130 DK)
In AJ Dillon’s second season, he tallied 5 speeding touchdowns for the Green Bay Packers. Dillon was tied for tenth within the NFL with 41 crimson zone carries, a task he could have as soon as once more in 2022.
Aaron Jones was nonetheless concerned close to the objective line with 33 carries, however Dillon’s body is well-suited to pound the ball in from shut. Even with out Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers ought to have this Packers offense working effectively, which suggests loads of scoring possibilities.
We’re choosing continued involvement and development for Dillon and taking his over 5.5 speeding TD. Dillon had a pair of lengthy runs final 12 months, showcasing that he is not only a one-trick pony however has an explosive ingredient to his recreation as properly.
Allen Robinson over 7.5 receiving touchdowns (+120 DK)
Matthew Stafford tossed 41 touchdowns final season in his first 12 months with the Rams, which tied a profession excessive set again in 2011. Sixteen of these went to Cooper Kupp, who feels certain for some slight regression of his historic season.
Nine touchdowns went to a mix of Robert Woods and Odell Beckham Jr., who’re each now not with the staff.
In comes Allen Robinson, one of the underappreciated receivers within the recreation because of the poor high quality of quarterbacking he is suffered by means of in Chicago.
Taking on most of Woods’ and OBJ’s quantity, and certainly siphoning some away from Kupp, Robinson ought to simply have the ability to cross this 7.5 whole.
Dallas Goedert over 4.5 receiving touchdowns (-130 DK)
Dallas Goedert has been within the NFL for 4 seasons, all with Philadelphia. His landing totals in these years, beginning in 2018: 4, 5, three and 4.
As you could keep in mind, Zach Ertz was the highest tight finish for the primary three seasons of Goedert’s profession and was nonetheless on the staff in the beginning of final 12 months. In the previous 4 seasons with the Eagles, Ertz accounted for 17 touchdowns.
This appears like an especially cheap line for a good finish as proficient as Goedert, with the low bar to cross possible due to his previous success and the addition of AJ Brown to the Philadelphia offense. While Brown ought to actually command a big chunk of targets, there stays a outstanding position for Goedert on this passing assault, and his 6-foot-5 body shall be utilized within the crimson zone.
Goedert must be on the sector for practically 100% of the offensive snaps, because the drop-off to TE2 on this roster is drastic. The quantity shall be there for Goedert to get us to this quantity, and it is one I’m betting.
Soon, we shall be writing and studying landing props for that Sunday’s recreation, motion we will capitalize on instantly. Almost there!