Welcome to our NHL projections and possibilities web page the place you’ll discover every crew’s likelihood of advancing by way of the playoffs and profitable the Stanley Cup.

The projections are based mostly on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the playoffs, which components in every crew’s projected energy, present well being, and their playoff path. Each crew’s projected energy relies on the projected worth of the gamers on its roster based mostly on Game Score Valued Added (GSVA). You can learn extra about GSVA and the mannequin here.

There are two variations of the possibilities. One that’s enterprise as typical and based mostly solely on participant worth, and one other that incorporates how “heavy” each team plays, based mostly on how predictive “heaviness” was over the past decade. 

This web page will likely be up to date on the conclusion of the ultimate recreation of the evening. Click to develop any chart for a bigger view.

All projections and possibilities are rounded to the closest complete quantity.


Last up to date: May 13, 1:15 AM EST

Classic Odds

Stanley Cup Odds

Teams

  

Round 1

  

Round 2

  

Cup Final

  

Stanley Cup

  

100.00%

83.40%

63.90%

40.10%

88.80%

51.80%

36.30%

20.60%

61.60%

31.40%

21.80%

11.40%

85.80%

59.50%

21.10%

8.40%

55.10%

32.90%

12.10%

4.80%

74.30%

33.50%

10.30%

3.50%

38.40%

14.30%

8.10%

3.40%

44.90%

25.20%

8.70%

3.20%

100.00%

16.60%

6.80%

1.90%

61.90%

24.80%

5.90%

1.80%

25.60%

8.40%

1.80%

0.40%

38.10%

10.10%

1.40%

0.20%

14.20%

5.70%

1.00%

0.20%

11.20%

2.40%

0.80%

0.20%


Heavy Odds

Screen Shot 2022 05 13 at 1.09.20 AM

Stanley Cup Odds (Heavy)

Teams

  

Round 1

  

Round 2

  

Cup Final

  

Stanley Cup

  

100.00%

75.60%

50.70%

30.80%

86.20%

47.40%

30.30%

16.80%

87.30%

66.50%

31.60%

15.70%

57.40%

29.20%

17.40%

9.30%

48.00%

33.30%

16.00%

7.90%

52.00%

33.70%

14.10%

5.90%

42.60%

20.00%

11.50%

5.30%

100.00%

24.40%

10.00%

3.20%

72.60%

24.30%

7.00%

2.20%

61.30%

19.80%

5.20%

1.50%

27.40%

8.70%

2.60%

0.70%

38.80%

8.40%

1.50%

0.30%

13.70%

3.40%

1.00%

0.30%

12.80%

5.30%

0.90%

0.20%

(Photo: Sergei Belski / USA Today)



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