The NFL season is an absolute grind for bettors, and this season has been no completely different. My NFL betting mannequin couldn’t fairly get something going earlier within the season, however during the last month, we’ve seen nearly six items of revenue during the last six weeks. The outcomes don’t look like a lot with the low quantity nature of my betting model, however we at the moment are up over 4% return on our funding this season. We will take that each crew. Let’s end the season sturdy.

Last week’s file: 3-2, +0.80 items

Season file: 34-27-3, +2.99 items, +4.3% ROI

A smaller card this week as that could be a theme as we get into the ultimate weeks of the season. The market has sharpened up and with as many accidents as there are, numerous worth can be present in reacting to damage information later within the week. But for now, there’s nonetheless some worth, and we get some Thursday Night Football motion.

NFL Week 13 Best Bets

The foremost concern I’ve had with the Patriots has been their offense, and Mac Jones appeared actually good final week in opposition to the Minnesota Vikings. Jones has regressed a bit in his sophomore marketing campaign, but when he’s going to play like he did final week, the Bills may have a tough time masking this quantity. Of course, the Bills offense can be scary, as any crew with Josh Allen behind middle can be a menace. But Buffalo’s protection is a trigger for concern. After an ideal begin to the season, the protection simply hasn’t been good. Since Week 5, the Bills really rank within the backside half in defensive EPA/Play. The Patriots can rating sufficient to maintain tempo with Allen and the Bills’ offense.

Worst line to wager: Patriots +4 -110

New York Jets +3 (-110) at Minnesota Vikings

I don’t know if Mike White’s efficiency in opposition to a putrid Bears protection is one thing to take a lot advantage in, however he’s nonetheless an improve over Zach Wilson. I don’t anticipate White to carry out to that degree once more (see final season), however the Vikings’ protection isn’t stout sufficient to fret me right here. As for this Jets protection, although…that’s what I’m enthusiastic about. They price as a Top-10 unit in my mannequin and have the third-best success price amongst defenses whereas in zone protection per TruMedia. Why is that essential? Kirk Cousins is about 0.1 EPA/Play worse in opposition to zone protection than man. I don’t know if the Jets offense will look as crisp as they did final week, however I’m assured the protection will hold them within the sport and have likelihood at masking.

Worst line to wager: Jets +3 -110

This play does make me a bit nervous with Terron Armstead out with an damage, however I feel the Dolphins offense matches up nicely in opposition to the 49ers protection. The 49ers are nice at producing stress with out blitzing, whereas Tua Tagovailoa has completely crushed defenses after they don’t blitz him. Which is sensible, I feel, when you concentrate on how Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are nearly unattainable to stay with if Tua isn’t getting the ball out of his fingers shortly. The 49ers offense will definitely succeed in opposition to a poor Dolphins protection, however with the firepower on the offensive aspect of the ball for Miami, it’s exhausting to go up greater than a discipline aim.

Worst line to wager: Dolphins +4 -110

Lines to look at

The Giants could be price a play if this line will get to a discipline aim. The Commanders are a bit fraudulent for the time being, and I anticipate the play of Taylor Heinicke to say no going ahead.

(Photo of Mike White: Mike Stobe/Getty Images)



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