Self-check time.
Back on Oct. 11, I asked and answered some burning questions forward of the official puck drop on the common season.
I’m virtually scared to verify again, however I should be courageous and accomplish that.
Here is a holiday-break actuality verify on my 10 burning questions and solutions:
Will we get a Stanley Cup Final repeat matchup?
What I wrote Oct. 11:
“Yes. Remember how entertaining those back-to-back Penguins-Red Wings Cup finals were in 2008 and 2009? Some of the best hockey I’ve covered. Which is how I felt last June covering Lightning-Avalanche, an absolute elite, elite championship matchup that produced a superb level of hockey, especially considering the ailments and injuries both rosters were fighting. Well, I’m predicting a repeat. I do believe the Hurricanes are right there as a contender, but I’m calling it now: It’s going to be Lightning-Avalanche again in 2023.”
Dec. 26 self-check:
I imply, I’m nonetheless OK with it? The Avs have been hammered by accidents all season and are simply enjoying survival hockey whereas their roster heals. But they’ll be proper again within the combine. Depending on their commerce deadline strikes (extra on that beneath), I really feel fantastic concerning the Avs’ possibilities to repeat. Meanwhile, the Lightning have been approaching after a gradual begin. They’ve obtained a fairly troublesome playoff path with Toronto and Boston in the best way on the prime of the Atlantic, however hey, it’s the Bolts. It’s what they do. Do I really feel nearly as good a few Cup Final matchup as I did in October? Not fairly, nevertheless it’s nonetheless at the least a risk.
Which participant can be a giant disappointment?
What I wrote Oct. 11:
“Johnny Gaudreau. And maybe that’s unfair, but given the drama that surrounded his free-agent decision, the pressure I think he’s going to put on himself to justify his decision and the adjustment he’s going to need to make to his new Columbus surroundings, I don’t think we’re seeing 115 points this season from him. He’s still going to be very good, but think 95-point-esque. It’s going to feel light given the circumstances. Here’s hoping Gaudreau proves me wrong.”
Dec. 26 self-check:
Gaudreau leads the Jackets in scoring with 34 factors (10 objectives) in 33 video games, on tempo for an 84-point season. On a 10-21-2 Jackets group that sits final within the Eastern Conference and is in full Connor Bedard-lottery chase mode, that’s spectacular to a point. He is doing his job, however there’s solely a lot he can do on this roster proper now. Still, I might need been too beneficiant in giving him 95 factors. Right now, he’s in line for a 30-point drop from final season. Which once more, is comprehensible given the circumstances. But I’ll take a win right here as far as the preseason prediction.
Johnny Gaudreau has 34 factors in 33 video games for the lowly Blue Jackets after scoring 115 final season for the Flames. (Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
Who will win the Jack Adams Award?
What I wrote Oct. 11:
“I’ve got Jay Woodcroft for coach of the year. Why not keep the trophy within Alberta, eh? Darryl Sutter will gladly hand it over. What will hurt Woodcroft’s chances is that there’s a ‘surprise’ element that’s often weighed in Jack Adams votes. The Flames last season surprised in the manner in which they dominated en route to their division title. Well, that’s what I see here for the Oilers. The Flames aren’t going anywhere, but I foresee a dominant regular season for Connor McDavid’s club with Jack Campbell solidifying the net and Woodcroft having an entire offseason to prepare his club properly after taking over midway through last season. Woodcroft has clearly connected with this group of players.”
Dec. 26 self-check:
Yeah, I don’t suppose that’s too probably now. The Oilers ought to nonetheless make the playoffs, nevertheless it gained’t be the form of yr that solicits Jack Adams votes for Woodcroft. Too inconsistent a group to this point this season, particularly defensively.
Instead, I’d at the moment checklist the Jack Adams front-runners as Jim Montgomery, Bruce Cassidy, Rick Bowness, Peter DeBoer, Sheldon Keefe, Lindy Ruff and Rod Brind’Amour. Feels just like the winner comes from that group if issues proceed like they’re for his or her groups. So, I’ll take an “L” so far as my preseason prediction right here.
Will Grubauer bounce again after a season from hell?
What I wrote Oct. 11:
“Yes. Consider these numbers: .918, .926, .923, .917, .916, .922. Those were Philipp Grubauer’s NHL save percentages from 2015-16 through 2020-21. And then last year: .889. I get that Grubauer benefitted to some extent from good programs in Washington and Colorado in those previous seasons. But to drop off a cliff like that with expansion Seattle was beyond the wildest expectation. It says here he finds his career norm this season.”
Dec. 26 self-check:
I felt so good about this one earlier than the season, however to this point not so good, Grubauer is checking in with an .882 save proportion, albeit in solely 10 begins, as he missed a month. I nonetheless suppose Grubauer has an opportunity to salvage his season with extra video games underneath his belt and the Kraken combating for a playoff berth. I’m really feeling OK about this pre-season name, however to this point it’s a miss.
What I wrote Oct. 11:
“Yes. And I suppose part of my answer lies in the fact that I like Logan Thompson. He was thrust into a tough situation last season with Vegas decimated by injuries and put up a .914 save percentage in 19 NHL games. Thompson doesn’t have a clear No. 1 starter job — he’s going to have to earn his starts — but I think he will do just that. As for the rest of the Knights roster, they’re owed some positive regression on the health side of things, right? It won’t be easy, but I believe the Knights get back into the playoff dance as a lower seed.”
Dec. 26 self-check:
How about first place within the Pacific!? Logan Thompson has been regular in purpose and the Golden Knights have certainly bounced again to this point. They’ll be higher than the decrease playoff seed I predicted within the preseason, however I’ll take the “W” as far as my burning query was merely being whether or not the Knights would make the playoffs.
Who will win the Calder Trophy?
What I wrote Oct. 11:
“I’ve got Sabres defenseman Owen Power for rookie of the year. The first overall pick from the 2021 NHL Draft will have some stiff competition, including from the guy taken right after him, Matty Beniers, who I think will have a fantastic rookie season in Seattle. But one thing we’ve seen with voters from our group at the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association is a clear appreciation for how hard it is to break into the NHL and play big minutes on the blue line. It’s why Moritz Seider was the absolute correct choice in winning the Calder last season. Cale Makar also won the Calder in 2020 and Aaron Ekblad in 2015. I think Power will follow in their footsteps.”
Dec. 26 self-check:
Power leads all NHL rookies in ice time, and it’s not even shut, averaging a whopping 23:38 per sport (Kaiden Guhle of the Habs is second at 20:53). I’d most likely place the NHL rookie scoring chief, Matty Beniers, and goalies Logan Thompson and Pyotr Kochetkov because the Calder front-runners proper now. But Power is completely within the combine, given his huge utilization. The hardest factor within the NHL is patrolling the blue line as a teenager, and the 20-year-old Power appears proper at dwelling. Still feeling respectable about this preseason prediction.
Who will win the Hart Trophy?
What I wrote Oct. 11:
“Last season’s playoff MVP, Cale Makar, will become the first defenseman since Chris Pronger in 2000 to win the regular-season MVP award. Which in itself is beyond crazy. Why have so few defensemen won? Pronger was the first D to win the trophy since Bobby Orr in 1972. Somehow, seven-time Norris Trophy winner Nicklas Lidstrom never won the Hart. Anyway, in 2022-23 Makar is primed to break through for his positional brethren. We saw in last season’s playoff run that he’s in the conversation for best player in the world at age 23, and there may well be some voter fatigue with Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid.”
Dec. 26 self-check:
Yeah, this isn’t taking place. I used to be making an attempt to show a degree with my preseason prediction with regards to defensemen by no means profitable the Hart. And there’s nothing incorrect with Makar’s season, however the Hart Trophy race is a one-man, runaway prepare proper now, with Connor McDavid blowing away the sector. No. 97 is on tempo for 155 factors, which might match Steve Yzerman’s 155-point season from 1988-89, the 14th-highest scoring season in NHL historical past! No one has eclipsed the 150-point barrier since Mario Lemieux (161 factors) in 1995-96. So yeah, if McDavid retains on this tempo, it will likely be one of the lop-sided Hart Trophy voting workouts in a very long time.
Connor McDavid will get behind the Devils. (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
Will the Kings commerce a right-handed D?
What I wrote Oct. 11:
“Yes. But not anytime soon. My sense is that the Kings’ front office wants to let the season play out a few months before potentially looking at their logjam on the right side of the blue line. Five of the seven defensemen named to their opening night roster are right-handed. And that’s not even counting Jordan Spence, who played 24 NHL games last season when injuries hit the Kings. They’re stacked with righties. Which most teams would die for. But expect the Kings to be patient for a while. They’ve got a bunch of guys coming back from injuries suffered, and they’ll want to see how everyone bounces back. But I do believe they move one of their right-handed D before the March 3 trade deadline.”
Dec. 26 self verify:
This nonetheless tracks. The Kings stay loaded with right-shot defensemen, and it’s nonetheless potential they transfer one by March 3 relying on their wants as they battle for a playoff spot. I chatted with Kings GM Rob Blake on Dec. 7 forward of their sport the subsequent day in Toronto, asking him about his depth of right-shot D, and basically what he mentioned on the time was that with junior-aged Brandt Clarke headed to the world juniors and Spence nonetheless in a position to develop within the AHL, they’ll bide their time and handle their extra right-shot D depth. But I think they may begin to hear on that depth nearer to March 3.
Which group would be the most aggressive on the commerce deadline?
What I wrote Oct. 11:
“Colorado. Maybe I’m being swayed by a comment, unsolicited to some degree, that new Avalanche GM Chris MacFarland made to me in a recent interview, when we chatted about replacing Nazem Kadri and his production on the second line.
“‘Listen, we’ve got about $1.8 million in cap room,’ MacFarland said. ‘That’ll be something we look at, and if we feel we have to address it in-season and it makes sense, then we’ll do it.
“‘But we’re excited to see if Alex Newhook can take a step. He’ll get a chance.’
“Newhook will get a real look, no question. But the Stanley Cup champions will leave no stone unturned in trying to repeat. I feel confident in saying they will take a few aggressive swings before the March 3 trade deadline.”
Dec. 26 self-check:
This nonetheless tracks. No query in my thoughts the Avs can be aggressive forward of March 3, whether or not that’s in search of a middle or a winger to reinforce their prime 9. Obviously, Bo Horvat or Ryan O’Reilly could be good provides, but when the Avs can’t afford these rental costs, perhaps it’s a ahead one rung beneath. Regardless, they’re 100% dialed in on including nearer to March 3.
Will the Maple Leafs lastly win a playoff collection?
What I wrote Oct. 11:
“Yes, sir. It is happening, people. This is the season the Shana-plan delivers a playoff series win, if not more. And I’m not saying that just to help soothe some crushed souls in the Toronto sports market after an embarrassing Blue Jays weekend. No, I truly believe the Maple Leafs will flip that massive anvil off their backs. The collective playoff scar tissue will mean something. For starters, I see the Leafs and Lightning battling for the top spot in the Atlantic Division, and regardless of which team wins out, I predict a 1-2 finish there, which means no first-round matchup between those clubs. I believe Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov will be pleasant surprises for the Leafs — not great exactly, but good enough. And then the Leafs will win their first playoff series since 2004. The boys on TSN’s Overdrive won’t have to relive the exact same radio show post first-round they’ve had since they’ve had forever.”
Dec. 26 self-check:
I’m feeling good about this prediction to this point, particularly the half about Murray and Samsonov. The Leafs have performed great hockey a lot of the season. Not certain whether or not they can reel in Boston for prime spot within the Atlantic, however both approach, the Leafs look each bit the a part of a real Cup contender. Whether they full the opposite a part of my preseason prediction, so far as lastly getting out of the primary spherical? We’ll need to verify again in April for that.
(Photo of Matt Murray and Mitch Marner: Tom Pennington / Getty Images)
