Who is the most effective returning prospect in school basketball?
That’s not a straightforward query this season. While everyone is worked up concerning the 2023 NBA Draft, the highest three projected gamers aren’t even taking part in within the NCAA. After that, we nonetheless have a paucity of returning prospects, even relative to latest years. Normally we get at the least a few non-freshmen who charge as top-20 picks or higher coming into the season — assume Purdue’s Jaden Ivey a yr in the past.
This season, not a lot. The high 15 gamers on our Sam Vecenie’s most recent Big Board are both one-and-dones or not in NCAA basketball. Only 4 of his high 25 performed in school basketball final season. Even in comparison with latest drafts that had been dominated by freshmen, we’re in a a lot iffier panorama for returning gamers.
Nonetheless, at the least just a few had me intrigued heading into this season, both as a result of I feel they’ve been underrated by the plenty or as a result of I share within the pleasure held by different draft watchers. Besides, each season, upperclassmen break by on the NBA degree, and we understand we must always have identified higher the entire time — assume Desmond Bane from the 2020 draft or Herb Jones in 2021.
It might not be an excellent crop, however listed here are just a few of the gamers who A) have me sufficient to control by the season or B) I feel I’m extra bullish on than the median draftnik. (Ages listed are as of Dec. 1.):
Kris Murray, 22, 6-8 junior, SF, Iowa
You may need heard of his twin brother, Keegan, who was the fourth decide within the 2022 draft and is beginning for the Sacramento Kings. Kris Murray gained’t go fourth within the 2023 draft, however he has an excellent shot of being a first-rounder even supposing he will likely be 23 when the subsequent NBA season begins.
Kris solely performed 18 minutes a recreation final season as a result of, nicely, his superior twin brother performed the identical place, however he’s placing up numbers to date this season which might be shockingly much like what Keegan did a yr in the past. The similarities of their video games are moderately apparent as nicely, with the exception that Kris is left-handed — however you may see the identical pure scoring intuition and gentle contact from all three ranges. I don’t assume it takes a rocket scientist to see a pro-caliber ahead right here.
Terrence Shannon, 22, 6-6 senior, SF, Illinois
I’ve been on the Terrence Shannon bandwagon since his freshman yr at Texas Tech, whereas noting that he wanted to develop his right hand and enhance his exterior shot to be a viable NBA wing. Well, it took some time, however voila.
Transferring to the Illini this season, he’s taken 34 3-pointers in six video games and made 16 of them after gingerly entering into 86 all season a yr in the past and changing a good 38.4 %. He’s additionally a 78.1 % profession free-throw shooter, which helps make the 3-point numbers plausible.
Meanwhile, Shannon has taken steps ahead as a scorer and playmaker as nicely; scouts will likely be watching carefully to see if it’s an early-season fluke or if he can keep his surges in assists and 2-point taking pictures by the grueling Big Ten season. Like a number of different gamers on this listing, Shannon is sufficiently old that he’s unlikely to get the advantage of the doubt inside the highest 20, however there’s a professional wing right here.
Reece Beekman, 21, 6-3 junior, PG/SG, Virginia
OK, homer. Yes, Reece Beekman performs for my Wahoos, and he solely averages 7.2 factors per recreation in his profession there. But let me guarantee you of 1 factor: Beekman is an NBA defender. While he’s a bit undersized for the 2 and his deal with and creation means don’t make him an enormous risk on the ball, he’s averaging 4.0 steals per 100 possessions in a conservative defensive scheme during which just one different common nabbed as many as 2.0 steals per 100 final season.
Additionally, Beekman’s offense has come a good distance. An erratic shooter as a freshman, he’s made 8 of 14 3s and 19 of twenty-two free throws in six video games this season and boosted his help charge. Scouts will likely be trying particularly laborious at how he does on open catch-and-shoot 3s; knocking these down are the minimal commonplace for him to get minutes due to his protection. A fast slasher whose finest moments are in Virginia’s uncommon transition alternatives, Beekman may additionally look quite a bit higher offensively in an open NBA flooring.
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Colby Jones, 20, 6-5 junior, SG, Xavier
A longtime fave in these elements, Colby Jones may lastly be turning the nook as a shooter. He’s opened the season making 9 of 14 3s and, extra convincingly, 25 of his 29 free-throw makes an attempt. After a hideous 29.2 % from 3 and 68.0 % from the road a yr in the past, that’s notable.
Jones provides a variety of positives in any other case. He has the scale and athleticism to defend greater gamers and is commonly requested to, however he additionally has the instincts and quickness of a guard, producing excessive steal charges and dropping off dimes on the transfer. His half-court offense remains to be a bit clunky, as he appears weirdly unable to get to a pull-up and might tie himself in pivoting knots when his drives are lower off. As a outcome, Jones’ general scoring charge isn’t on par with a few of the different prospects right here. Nonetheless, as a younger junior who will barely be 21 on draft day, Jones needs to be getting late first-round consideration if the taking pictures uptick is actual.
Josiah-Jordan James, 22, 6-6 senior, SF, Tennessee
I haven’t heard a lot speak about Josiah-Jordan James recently (and sure, the hyphen in his first identify and never his final), however he provides a reasonably engaging bundle. He’s solely performed three video games this season however has performed very nicely in them, and it continues a development that he confirmed within the latter a part of final season. Not famend as a shooter, James made 21 of 42 3s final season in a late-season stretch, a reality everybody instantly dismissed when he went 0-for-6 in an upset NCAA Tournament loss to Michigan.
This season, he’s 10-of-19 from 3 and 5-for-5 from the road. Small pattern and all, however that’s 31 of his final 67 3s over two seasons. And that issues as a result of taking pictures was the one factor actually separating James from being a powerful prospect. He’s 6-6 and athletic, punching nicely above his weight as a rebounder (12.1 % profession rebound charge) and averaging over 3.0 steals and a pair of.0 blocks per 100 possessions over the previous two seasons.
James doesn’t have the ballhandling wiggle to be a high-level scorer, and he’ll be 23 earlier than the subsequent NBA season begins, so we’re in all probability speaking a couple of second-round prospect right here. But if the taking pictures uptick is actual, it’s fairly simple to ascertain a 3-and-D sort touchdown for him within the professionals.
Terquavion Smith, 19, 6-3 sophomore, SG, N.C. State
I’m undecided I’m as excessive on Terquavion Smith as a few of my colleagues, however the rail-thin launcher has some clear professional potential. Smith has deep taking pictures vary, however he’s additionally very fast and proven himself succesful — at instances — of disruptive defensive performs.
The greatest query, truly, is about how large a energy his taking pictures actually is. Thus far, he’s profiled extra as a mad bomber (an astounding 14.9 3-point makes an attempt per 100) than a notably correct one. He’s at 36.1 % for his profession and 32.1 % on this younger season. And if he’s such a very good shooter, shouldn’t he be capable of make a free throw? (70.9 % profession)
Those questions are essential for Smith as a result of the taking pictures is his pathway to the league. He’s badly undersized for the 2, and his court docket imaginative and prescient and deal with might want to enhance for him to play level guard. Defensively, he’ll be a goal. Nonetheless, his indicator stats are fairly good — excessive charges of steals and blocks for his dimension, an honest rebound charge and an help charge that has practically doubled within the early a part of the season. He’s fascinating as a Malik Monk sort, prompt offense sixth man.
Jalen Wilson, 22, 6-8 senior, SF, Kansas
I assumed Jalen Wilson had performed himself into the second spherical on the NBA Draft Combine and was stunned when he pulled his identify out, however he might find yourself profitable this wager. Wilson has erupted initially of 2022-23, taking pictures 3s rather more incessantly (and precisely!) and likewise practically doubling his scoring charge … not a straightforward feat if you had been already arguably the most effective participant on the nationwide champion.
Wilson’s taking pictures will likely be scrutinized all season, in addition to the remainder of his recreation relative to youthful gamers (he’s a 22-year-old senior), and people elements may nonetheless conspire to maintain him out of the primary spherical. But in a league that’s continuously scrounging for giant, expert wings, Wilson is an enormous wing who has demonstrated a notable uptick in ability.
Ricky Council IV, 21, 6-5 junior, SG, Arkansas
Ricky Council IV caught my eye in his freshman season at Wichita State; he had the athletic pop for shot creation that made you rewind the tape and say, “Wait, who was that guy?” His first two years in Wichita had been a wild trip — there was a variety of shot creation and possibly not as a lot cross creation, and his exterior shot isn’t constant sufficient for him to outlive on a few of the jumpers he was taking.
That stated, Council is clearly an NBA athlete, and there’s purpose to imagine he can shoot higher than he’s proven so far. He additionally rebounded like a 4 in two seasons within the AAC, and his “stocks” (steals and blocks) charges had been a optimistic. With two possible lottery picks taking part in on the ball in Anthony Black and Nick Smith Jr., scouts will likely be watching how Council suits round them to get an thought of how he may match as a task participant on the subsequent degree.
Coleman Hawkins, 20, 6-10 junior, PF, Illinois
Yes, one other participant from Illinois. I don’t make the foundations.
I’m not completely certain what this man is but, however I’m intrigued by him as an enormous man who can create performs for others and possibly, hopefully, shoot? Coleman Hawkins solely shot 29.2 % from 3 final yr and 65.0 % from the road, however he’s off to a very good begin this season (8-for-21 from 3) and practically doubled his help charge from a yr in the past. He nonetheless doesn’t lack for warts for the nitpickers: You’d wish to see extra rebounding at his dimension, and he’s liable to each turnovers and fouls. Call this an eye-test name: I like his instruments and assume he has sufficient instincts for the sport to get higher. He’s in all probability extra of a second-round man, however he’s fascinating.
Illinois’ Coleman Hawkins is possibly my favourite prospect this season. Have talked about that just a few instances, however he showcased WHY in opposition to Syracuse tonight. Had a 15/10/10 triple-double, and simply fully obliterated their zone from the foul line space as a passer and contact finisher. pic.twitter.com/YixV365VqH
— Sam Vecenie (@Sam_Vecenie) November 30, 2022
(While we’re on the subject of Illinois, I simply may have put 4 gamers from that program on his listing. Baylor switch Matthew Mayer is a wild trip, and also you’d wish to see extra progress in his seventeenth season of faculty basketball, however he has at all times intrigued me along with his means to create pictures at one finish and generate steals on the different. And sophomore R.J. Melendez by some means solely performed 9 minutes a recreation final yr though statistically he may need been the crew’s finest participant.)
Jaime Jaquez, Jr., 21, 6-6 senior, SG, UCLA
I’ve typically felt that “knows how to play basketball” is an underrated line in a prospect’s resume. Jaquez Jr. is neither a freak athlete nor a threatening shooter, however he is aware of the right way to play basketball. While his profession averages of 33.1 % from 3 and 72.2 % from the road are troubling, scouts can stake solace in Jaquez’s means to learn and react shortly to what’s occurring round him on the court docket. He’s a deft passer, a artful one-on-one scorer and a surprisingly disruptive defender for a participant of this archetype.
Helpfully, he’s additionally younger for a senior, not turning 22 till February, and that would assist him examine favorably to another wing candidates on this listing. Jaquez may make that comparability simpler, clearly, by pulling down just a few extra jumpers, however even when he shoots within the low 30s, there’s sufficient right here to see a possible NBA function participant.
(Top photograph of Kris Murray: Rich Schultz / Getty Images)