Each member of the Tier 1 quarterback group possesses a mixture of passing and speeding metrics which registers as elite. Overall, Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen has terrific metrics on each fronts, as he threw for 36 TDs and greater than 4,400 yards, whereas speeding for 763 yards and 6 TDs as effectively. Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson’s calling card comes within the speeding recreation, with 1,000-yard speeding seasons in each 2019 and 2020, however falling quick in 2021 primarily as a consequence of damage. There seems to be a little bit of fantasy fatigue on Jackson, however don’t make that mistake. Both Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert run passing offenses that make opponents drool, whereas additionally contributing to the speeding recreation in a significant method (assume 300+ speeding yards and 2-3 TDs). The Tier 1 QB group must be chosen beginning in the direction of the again half of spherical 3, and persevering with via spherical 5.
Tier 2 presents robust fantasy QB choices as effectively, albeit with out the identical gusto within the passing-rushing combo of the tier 1 choices. One can argue that Cardinals QB Kyler Murray belongs within the first tier, however accidents and fading statistics behind NFL seasons retains him beneath the highest quartet. Jalen Hurts has work to do on his passing recreation, however 784 speeding yards and 10 TDs from the QB spot (per his 2021 numbers) locations him excessive within the rankings. His speeding recreation ought to proceed to be robust in 2022, with some positive aspects to be anticipated on the passing aspect as a consequence of one other 12 months of expertise and the Eagles’ addition of star WR AJ Brown. On the alternative finish of the spectrum, Bengals QB Joe Burrow stuffs the stat sheet primarily via the passing recreation, as evidenced by his 4,600 passing yards and 34 TDs final season. Burrow has rushed for below 150 yards in every of his two seasons, and also you shouldn’t anticipate a giant change there. Rounds 6-7 make sense for the tier 2 trio.
Tier 3 homes my first daring prediction of the season, as I anticipate 49ers QB Trey Lance to turn out to be a fantasy darling this season. I didn’t fairly have the nerve to put him on the high of this tier, however sliding simply behind the GOAT nonetheless rings loud. While the QBs in tier 3 include extra considerations than the previous tiers, you possibly can comfortably proceed with a beginning QB from this group. While Brady has but to indicate indicators of slowdown via 22 NFL seasons, he’ll play the 2022 season at age 45. At some level, the wheels will fall off! Not predicting it’ll be this 12 months, however there’s nonetheless some danger there. Both Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers have misplaced key broad receivers, so their passing numbers might level downward from final season. Broncos QB Russell Wilson (will take some getting used to) joins a brand new franchise, with a brand new offense and new ability gamers, so he might have a while to regulate to the utterly new settings. Super Bowl winner Matthew Stafford comes with the least danger from this group, however he additionally probably possesses the least upside right here. We circle again to second-year QB Trey Lance, who has the arm, accuracy and speeding capacity to vault right into a high 5 fantasy QB as early as this season. But sure, having not but carried out at that stage, Lance comes with essentially the most danger right here as effectively. The advice right here is to focus on a beginning QB from this tier and above.
The QB place continues to be traditionally deep, with maybe the league’s most underrated QB main the Tier 4 quintet. There’s nothing attractive about Derek Carr’s recreation, however traditionally he’s been good for ~ 25 TD tosses a season. Now reunited along with his former school teammate — stud WR Davante Adams — Carr has the suitable ability gamers round him to leap nearer to the 28-30 TD mark. What would you consider a QB who averaged 4,243 passing yards and 34 TDs a season? Those are Kirk Cousins’ numbers over the previous two years, which occur to coincide with famous person WR Justin Jefferson’s tenure with the Vikings. Expect extra of the identical manufacturing from Cousins, with the Vikings’ offense a sleeper to vault close to the highest of the NFL. With everybody’s favourite lap dance-seeking head coach not operating the ship in Jacksonville, Trevor Lawrence ought to rebound in Year 2. The Jags’ skill-position core nonetheless lacks the high-end expertise wanted for Lawrence to bump up into the following tier, however he’ll look a lot better in 2022. Speaking of skill-position deficiency, the Bears’ technique for supporting QB Justin Fields stays a thriller. Fields resides in the identical tier as Lawrence primarily due to his anticipating work within the speeding recreation. We finish Tier 4 with Tua Tagovailoa, who now has WR Tyreek Hill to throw to, together with second-year WR Jaylen Waddle and incumbent TE Mike Gesicki. In different phrases, Tua’s out of excuses if he doesn’t carry out in 2022. While Tua doesn’t possess a cannon for an arm, his accuracy gives hope for a strong, fantasy-relevant 2022 marketing campaign. Unless you’re in a deep league (that means 14+ groups) I might counsel avoiding the Tier 4 group as a weekly starter, as there are higher choices obtainable. But matchup/spot begins are wonderful with this group.
The Tier 5 residents possess a diversified background, from a former league MVP (Matt Ryan) to a QB more likely to face a prolonged suspension (Deshaun Watson), together with upside second-year gamers (Mac Jones, Zach Wilson and Davis Mills) to veterans attempting to show that they belong as beginning QBs (Daniel Jones, Jameis Winston, Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Ryan Tannehill and Baker Mayfield). This group ought to solely be used as backups or spot starters, with the exception being Deshaun Watson within the occasion that he performs in 2022. If aiming for upside amongst this group, I might counsel specializing in the primary three names.
The technique at QB in fantasy leagues has remained static for the previous few years. Most fantasy leagues have 10 or 12 groups, and there are comfortably 13 viable weekly starters this season. Doing the maths, except you’re in a league with 14+ groups, we’ve received extra starting-caliber QBs than groups in your league. As we undergo the RB and WR positions, you’ll see that the maths will get lots harder. As a outcome, it’s best to concentrate on fortifying your RB, WR and TE positions, understanding that there are a number of beginning QB choices you possibly can snag within the mid to later rounds. In case you crave a Tier 1 starter, at the very least be certain that you’re not overpaying along with your draft capital.
If your lead QB occurs to fall outdoors of the highest three tiers, be sure that he’s no decrease than Tier 4, and at the very least pair up that QB with a second Tier 4 possibility in an effort to play weekly matchups.
*** The exception to the wait-for-QBs rule applies for leagues that require you to begin two QBs. In two-QB leagues, it’s best to intention to seize your first QB from Tier 2 or higher, along with your second QB coming from no additional down than Tier 4. In such a league, it’s acceptable to draft your first QB throughout the first two rounds. Scarcity flips technique, so simply be aware of the stark distinction in technique for 2 QB leagues.