As San Francisco GM John Lynch fields calls and decides on his subsequent transfer, we put collectively a few of our personal commerce situations. Five writers for groups that may doubtless be inquisitive about Samuel — the Packers, Texans, Chiefs, Jets and Eagles — introduced a suggestion to 49ers writers David Lombardi and Matt Barrows, who then weighed their choices. Were any of the affords adequate to persuade the 49ers to maneuver on from the 26-year-old All-Pro?
Here’s what they got here up with:
Green Bay Packers
What are you able to supply in a commerce? Nos. 22 and 53 within the 2022 draft.
The Packers acquired these two picks within the Davante Adams commerce, and still have Nos. 28 and 59, a complete of 4 choices within the first two rounds this 12 months. So primarily, it’s an Adams-for-Samuel swap, with the Packers realizing they’ll have to provide Samuel round what Adams acquired from the Raiders by way of an extension (5 years, $141.25 million). With Samuel being greater than three years youthful than Adams and nonetheless a first-team All-Pro wideout alongside him, the Packers are keen to make the commerce, even when Adams is a greater receiver and an extension for Samuel doubtless prices a bit of bit extra.
How it may well work along with your group’s cap house: The Packers have a shade greater than $14 million in cap house, in line with Over the Cap. However, they need to account for the cash wanted for draft picks, practice-squad signings, in-season transactions, and so on. They primarily haven’t any spending room except they make a further transfer or two to unlock house for a Samuel extension. Extending cornerback Jaire Alexander would do this, as would releasing defensive lineman Dean Lowry ($4.1 million freed if reduce), who could possibly be a cap casualty if the Packers bolster their line of defense by means of the draft.
What are you able to supply in a commerce? Nos. 13 and 108 within the 2022 draft for Samuel and No. 134.
After buying and selling Deshaun Watson to the Browns, the Texans are flush with draft capital. They have two first-round picks in every of the following three drafts, together with Nos. 3 and 13 this 12 months. The Texans even have additional third- and fourth-round picks within the 2022 draft. But with so many holes on the roster, it’d be unwise for GM Nick Caserio to blow by means of a lot of that draft capital for one non-quarterback earlier than handing that participant a top-of-the-market deal. The Texans are most likely a 12 months away, at finest, from making an aggressive transfer like this, which is why I saved the supply fairly conservative.
How it may well work along with your group’s cap house: According to Over the Cap, the Texans rank second within the league in lifeless cash, behind solely the Falcons, however they’re on monitor to have the fourth-most efficient cap house in 2023. That’s when Caserio’s two-year cleanse of Bill O’Brien’s mistake will likely be full. The Texans may backload a brand new contract for Samuel to make him slot in 2022, and when the cap hits rise within the years that comply with, probably having a beginning quarterback on a rookie deal — whether or not it’s Davis Mills or another person — would make Samuel’s large price ticket simpler to swallow. Of course, given the Texans’ long-term uncertainty at quarterback, it’s price questioning whether or not the group even ought to commerce for Samuel and hand him an costly new contract.
Kansas City Chiefs
What are you able to supply in a commerce? The thirtieth and 94th picks within the 2022 draft.
The Chiefs have 12 picks this 12 months, which is tied with the Jaguars for probably the most choices. Since Samuel is getting into the ultimate 12 months of his contract, two picks throughout the prime 100 can be honest compensation. Every week earlier than the draft final 12 months, the Chiefs despatched the Ravens a bundle of draft picks — together with a 2021 first (No. 31), third (No. 94) and fourth (No. 136) and a 2022 fifth-rounder — in change for left deal with Orlando Brown, who was additionally getting into the ultimate 12 months of his rookie contract. It’s attainable the Chiefs may ship three picks to the 49ers for Samuel, however common supervisor Brett Veach will doubtless wish to maintain the group’s two second-round picks.
How it may well work along with your group’s cap house: If the Chiefs acquired Samuel, the group would nonetheless have $15 million in cap house, in line with Over The Cap. The greater challenge, after all, is how a lot may the Chiefs give Samuel in a profitable contract extension. The Chiefs would doubtless must signal Samuel to a four-year deal wherein earned no less than $19 million per season. Another choice is to have Samuel play the ultimate 12 months of his rookie deal for the Chiefs to see how he matches inside their offense. That was the choice the group made final 12 months with Brown. And just like this offseason with Brown, the Chiefs may place the franchise tag on Samuel after this upcoming season, a call that might stop him from reaching free company.
New York Jets
What are you able to supply in a commerce? The supply will doubtless be just like the one in place for Tyreek Hill — two 2022 second-round picks (Nos. 35 and 38) and a third-rounder (No. 69).
The Jets haven’t executed a lot to cover their curiosity in buying and selling for a receiver. They had been in on Amari Cooper, Calvin Ridley and Hill, however failed to come back away with any of the three, by means of no fault of their very own.
Coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur beloved Samuel throughout their overlapping time in San Francisco. They’ll be among the many first to name Lynch if Samuel is certainly made accessible. But common supervisor Joe Douglas doesn’t appear overly inquisitive about parting with certainly one of his two first-round picks (Nos. 4 and 10).
How it may well work along with your group’s cap house: The Jets don’t have a ton of cap house now, however that’s largely due to how a lot they dedicate to paying their rookie class. Parting with the picks to accumulate Samuel will free greater than sufficient room. The Jets can simply create extra by restructuring linebacker C.J. Mosley and increasing deal with George Fant.
What are you able to supply in a commerce? No. 18 and the primary of two third-round picks (No. 84) in 2022, and a 2024 third-round decide to spherical issues out.
The Eagles checked in on Allen Robinson and Christian Kirk in free company and had been concerned in commerce discussions for Calvin Ridley this offseason, so we all know they’d prefer to improve their extensive receiver room. Nick Sirianni would additionally like so as to add extra of a YAC dynamic to the offense, so it’s protected to say they’ll be inquisitive about Samuel to a point. Good factor they’ve stuff to supply.
The Eagles have two picks within the first spherical this 12 months (Nos. 15 and 18) and 5 picks within the prime 101 to go together with two first-round picks in 2023 and two second-round picks in 2024, so they may current the 49ers with a choose-your-own-adventure mixture of affords. I believe their choice can be to frontload the picks to keep up subsequent offseason’s flexibility, particularly since touchdown Samuel may need a constructive influence on their potential to lure a veteran quarterback to Philadelphia.
How it may well work along with your group’s cap house: The Eagles have about $9 million in efficient cap house, in line with Over the Cap, and some gamers whose contracts they’ll restructure to create extra room. They’ve by no means had a problem structuring contracts to suit good gamers beneath the cap and would have little drawback doing so with Samuel in the event that they view him as an elite participant.
The determination …
Early experiences counsel that conservative affords received’t transfer the needle for the 49ers. A supply instructed Hughes that any potential suitor would “have to get crazy” for the 49ers to contemplate buying and selling Samuel. That is sensible contemplating how invaluable Samuel was to their offense in 2021.
Based on EPA/play splits, the 49ers had been over 4 occasions as environment friendly when Samuel was on the sphere versus when he was off it in 2021. Before he began getting used as a operating again — an indispensable improvement for the 49ers in its personal proper — Samuel was focused at a better proportion than some other participant within the NFL. There merely are not any comparable receivers to Samuel, whose bruising fashion has despatched shockwaves by means of the NFL, within the coming draft. It’s very laborious to see the 49ers bettering the scenario for rookie QB Trey Lance by jettisoning Samuel, who’s nonetheless beneath an affordable rookie contract for another season.
Given all that, it’s simple to see why solely an enormous return would justify a commerce for the 49ers.
So, we’d deliver a hardball to the bargaining desk with any of those groups. The Jets must half with certainly one of their two first-rounders to have a shot. The Texans must sweeten that supply with no less than one other third-round decide, however even that might be doubtful to us. The Chiefs would additionally must pony up extra, since their supplied first-round decide comes close to the tip of the spherical.
Based off pure worth, Philadelphia’s supply that includes three picks is perhaps strongest whereas Green Bay’s mixture of a first- and second-rounder isn’t horrible. But nothing right here appears reduce from the “blow your socks off” material that the 49ers may must spur motion on their half.
If the Jets toss in No. 10, we’ll think about forgetting about a kind of second-round picks and have a deal. But make no mistake: It’ll take a large splash to get this ball rolling.
Otherwise, Samuel is staying with the 49ers. And in that case, let the standoff start.
—David Lombardi and Matt Barrows
(Photo: Michael Zagaris / San Francisco 49ers / Getty Images)