As the NFL steamrolls into the second half of its season, the road between playoff contenders and also-rans is rising clearer. For the groups within the latter class, it’s already time to begin speaking in regards to the draft. How does the highest of the NFL draft order shake out by way of 10 weeks, and the way would possibly it shift?

We’ve acquired particulars, by way of Austin Mock’s up to date numbers. Mock initiatives the rating for each sport and the ultimate win share for each staff utilizing his NFL betting mannequin. The mannequin phases out older knowledge and makes use of knowledge from this yr because the season progresses. The simulation then runs 100,000 occasions after every day of video games to offer us, on this case, our No. 1 choose odds and every staff’s likeliest draft touchdown spot.

His projections are under, however we’ll additionally check out the present top-10 order and break down what every staff in these slots would possibly want come April.

Austin Mock’s projected high 10

The massive developments right here? To begin, regardless of having the identical variety of losses (seven) as 5 different groups (Raiders, Saints, Jaguars, Bears and Panthers), the Texans’ odds of touchdown at No. 1 proceed to soar. They grabbed that spot in 67.8 p.c of Mock’s projections, a marked rise from 54.4 p.c final week. Houston’s Week 1 tie towards Indianapolis looms massive, however Lovie Smith’s membership additionally faces a tough last eight video games.

You’ll additionally discover that the 3-6 Rams have entered the image right here, a surprising slide by the defending Super Bowl champs. The Lions stand to reap the advantages of L.A.’s points as a result of they maintain the Rams’ first-round choose once more this yr by way of the Matthew Stafford commerce. Coming out of Week 10, Mock initiatives Detroit GM Brad Holmes to have two top-10 slots in April.

The Lions are simply exterior of that double dip within the precise post-Week 10 draft order, at Nos. 8 (by way of L.A.) and 11 (their very own choose). Here’s how the present high 10 appears, with Nick Baumgardner providing up a bit mock draft-adjacent evaluation of which offensive and defensive prospects every staff may take into account:

1. Houston Texans (1-7-1)

Projected odds of securing No. 1 general: 67.8%
Projected choose: No. 1

Offense: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Defense: Will Anderson Jr., edge, Alabama

This might be a best-player-available scenario, no matter whether or not it’s on offense or protection (which implies Georgia’s Jalen Carter additionally might be within the combine). Anderson (or Carter) could be No. 1 on a whole lot of boards, even for groups needing a quarterback. That stated, the Texans’ present QB, Davis Mills, is a strong teenager, however he’s not Bryce Young.

The Texans have the picks to make massive strikes this spring. You can’t make all of these strikes till you discover QB1.

2. Las Vegas (2-7)

Projected odds of securing No. 1 general: 4.7%
Projected choose: No. 5

Offense: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Defense: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

If the Raiders wind up within the high three and have a shot at Young or Stroud, it might be too robust for Josh McDaniels to go up. Perhaps McDaniels isn’t a fan of both. Perhaps the Raiders (and a few of these different rebuilding groups) have a watch on North Carolina sophomore Drake Maye for the 2024 draft. But Las Vegas can get out of Derek Carr’s deal with out a lot monetary ache this offseason.

However, Carr’s nonetheless solely 31. Carter, Anderson and even Kelee Ringo would look awfully good in silver and black, too.


Tafur: Derek Carr questions Raiders’ effort — that falls on Josh McDaniels, too

3. Carolina (3-7)

Projected odds of securing No. 1 general: 5.2%
Projected choose: No. 3

Offense: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Defense: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia

The Panthers want a quarterback greater than anyone else on this listing, so it wouldn’t be excellent to land exterior the highest two. Levis is definitely a first-round expertise, however there are in all probability extra questions along with his sport proper now than both Young or Stroud.

The Panthers may punt and commerce down, in fact, however QB1 nonetheless appears like this franchise’s greatest want. A defensive choice to think about: Kelee Ringo, who’s the highest nook on this class with legit shut-down potential in man.

4. Philadelphia by way of New Orleans (3-7)

Projected odds of securing No. 1 general: 4.0%
Projected choose: No. 4

Offense: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Defense: Myles Murphy, edge, Clemson

Oh, the luxurious. The Eagles are able to do actually something they need, with what fairly probably shall be a top-five choose. We’ll see if the Saints can get on a run to disrupt {that a} bit, however that appears like a stretch. So, Bijan Robinson and Jalen Hurts, anybody? I’m in.

The Eagles may additionally simply take the most effective participant out there in a spot like this and take a freak like Murphy, who’s a possible defensive anchor up entrance.

5. Jacksonville (3-7)

Projected odds of securing No. 1 general: 2.4%
Projected choose: No. 6

Defense: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Offense: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

Gonzalez’s pace has appeared like the actual deal this fall, as has his size. He is a bodily nook with nice measurables and normal quickness, but additionally some game-altering pace. He’s not as polished as Ringo, however Gonzalez nonetheless has a robust declare to CB2 proper now.

An offensive choice for Trevor Lawrence right here might be Fashanu, the No. 5 prospect on Dane Brugler’s updated board. The Jaguars’ offensive line stays a difficulty in want of long-term restore.

6. Chicago (3-7)

Projected odds of securing No. 1 general: 7.8%
Projected choose: No. 2

Offense: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Defense: Tyree Wilson, edge, Texas Tech

Justin Fields would rejoice. The 6-foot-6, 308-pound Fashanu continues to climb boards as one of many extra intriguing children within the class. Just a third-year participant with one season (this one) as a full-time starter, Fashanu’s motion expertise and measurement may make him Fields’ long-term reply up entrance.

Projected odds of securing No. 1 general: 1.4%
Projected choose: No. 9

Defense: Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
Offense: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

Simpson in all probability must be seen as one thing past a regular stack linebacker, as a result of he’s a lot greater than that. An electrical athlete with explosion to make performs towards the run, in protection and as a go rusher, Simpson might be a complete freak when the whole lot clicks. He’s nonetheless creating his polish and fundamentals.

An offensive choice to think about right here might be Mayer. This is admittedly excessive for a decent finish, however Mayer is admittedly, actually good. Geno Smith would adore it.



2023 NFL Draft Consensus Big Board: Will Anderson Jr., C.J. Stroud top the list

8. Detroit by way of L.A. Rams (3-6)

Projected odds of securing No. 1 general: 1.1%
Projected choose: No. 10

Defense: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
Offense: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

The Lions are nonetheless able to have a pair of early first-rounders to work with this spring, though the trail to QB1 could be harder if Dan Campbell’s two-game profitable streak grows into one thing extra. Trading up ought to (and can) be on the board. Still, it’d be awfully laborious to miss what Bresee may do up entrance in Detroit, alongside Aidan Hutchinson, Josh Paschal, Malcolm Rodriguez and the Okwara brothers.

If the board fell like this, a query for Detroit: Would Richardson (or one other QB) be a attain right here?

9. Houston by way of Cleveland (3-6)

Projected odds of securing No. 1 general: 0.6%
Projected choose: No. 13

Offense: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Defense: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

Kayshon Boutte, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison and perhaps even Jalin Hyatt might take concern right here, however Johnston will get the nod to accomplice up with Bryce Young, and our hypothetical Texans rebuild is admittedly on its approach. Johnston has to get higher with normal route working, however it is a 6-4, 215-pound receiver who can line up wherever and dominate. He’s a fantastic participant.

Joey Porter Jr., the son of the previous Steelers star Joey Porter, continues to rise as probably the greatest on-ball corners in America.

10. Pittsburgh (3-6)

Projected odds of securing No. 1 general: 2.2%
Projected choose: No. 7

Offense: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
Defense: Nolan Smith, edge, Georgia

This would really feel like a dream state of affairs for the Steelers, as sort out (on each side of the ball) appears like their greatest want proper now. It’s not a fantastic yr to be tremendous tackle-needy, as the highest tackles (Fashanu, Skoronski and Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr.) all are excellent however nonetheless can’t be stamped as apparent top-10 prospects.

If the Steelers had been to go strictly greatest out there right here, somebody like Smith — a man who does actually the whole lot within the entrance seven for Georgia — would possibly match.

(Top picture: Robert Deutsch / USA Today)

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